Iran War Could Restart Nov. 3, Targeting Gulf Oil and Undersea Cables

A third round of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran could begin after Nov. 3, when U.S. midterm election ballots are counted.

Danny Citrinowicz, who spent more than two decades in Israeli military intelligence and now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, said renewed conflict is close to certain. "A renewed war seems almost inevitable," he said.

He expects Iranian officials to prompt strikes against Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure and communications links, including internet cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also said Iran might use portions of its land army for limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, including Kuwait and Bahrain, to strain the American economy.

Two wars between the U.S., Israel and Iran have already unfolded in the past 18 months. Fighting in June 2025 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities and lasted 12 days before a ceasefire took hold. A second round began in February after a large U.S. military buildup, opening with Israeli strikes on senior Iranian leadership including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Neither side has struck the other's bases or territory since the summer truce ended, but activity has continued. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran has attacked commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing energy costs higher. Trump said on Thursday on Truth Social that Iran was inflating oil prices before the midterms and was "making up fake hits, mines and everything else." A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War said the vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands.

Iran is seeking sanctions relief, reparations for earlier strike damage, the release of billions in frozen assets and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have worked for weeks to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution said the war has likely pushed Iran's leadership to commit further to revolutionary ideology, and she warned of retaliation from proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon aimed at soft economic sites like airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military "knockout punch" will force Iran to capitulate.

Casualties already number in the thousands. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media report over 4,000 in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members have been killed, mostly in Iranian strikes on Gulf bases, along with more than 70 Israelis. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Yemen. The New York Times and other U.S. outlets report the Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unknown whether Trump would approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of "finishing the job" and toppling the Iranian regime. He faces voters in the coming days in a race expected to be close. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help him stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government with opposition members. He said the danger comes when political calculation combines with an Iranian development that Netanyahu may inflate, producing an unnecessary attack.

Citrinowicz previously cautioned that striking the Islamic regime would not produce regime change and would draw the region into a wider conflict. He said that view still holds, and that Trump has "only bad and worse options" in the Persian Gulf. Sadjadpour said diplomacy remains possible but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims, adding that Iran would compromise only under severe economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit. "If you're asking them to change their identity, that's not going to succeed," Sadjadpour said.