Votel: U.S. must pick end state or rely on sanctions to break Iran

Retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel says a new round of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran is unlikely to end the war. Speaking with NPR’s Leila Fadel, the former head of U.S. Central Command argued that while fresh attacks can weaken Iranian capabilities, they have not yet changed Tehran’s strategic calculations.

Votel served as Central Command chief from 2016 to 2019 and now chairs the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. He noted that many likely targets have already been hit in previous operations. Iran has demonstrated the ability to rebuild these assets. Votel said strikes can buy time and punish Tehran, but they do not force a decisive shift in the conflict’s trajectory.

The general identified two specific goals for a successful conclusion to the war: resolving the nuclear enrichment issue and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He stated that Washington must define a clear end state and determine how it will declare victory. Without this definition, military force remains only one component of a broader strategy that should include economic, diplomatic, and information pressure.

Votel pointed to the financial front as an area showing visible progress. He cited recent reporting indicating that Iran’s so-called ghost fleet has run out of oil. The blockade and sanctions are adding pressure, though he noted this approach requires time to fully materialize.

On the military readiness front, Votel assessed that American offensive power in the region is substantial. The ability to strike targets is not in question. However, he identified missile defense as a potential constraint. Heavy pressure on defensive interceptors protecting U.S. forces and Gulf partners could deplete stocks before the war ends.

He described the U.S. aim as primarily focused on reopening Hormuz to lower gas and diesel prices at home, alongside limiting Iran’s nuclear program. Votel also noted Iran uses proxies like the Houthis to create regional instability, but he ranked Hormuz and enrichment as the principal worries. He stressed that bringing Iran to the negotiating table requires a coordinated use of all national power tools and the patience to see the strategy through.