Goldknopf's Three Seats and Bennett's Potential Move May Decide Israel's Government

Political assessments circulating within Israel's establishment suggest that the next government may hinge on the votes of Yitzhak Goldknopf's Agudat Yisrael faction. With less than one day remaining before voting begins, officials are weighing scenarios where this three-MK party supports an opposition-led administration in exchange for specific budgetary agreements.

Such a deal would not automatically secure a governing majority. Analysts note that even with Agudat Yisrael's backing, a new government might still require support from Arab parties. Alternatively, if no stable coalition forms, the country could return to the polls for a second election.

The prospect of Agudat Yisrael partnering with the change bloc is not new. In August, the Maariv newspaper reported that the faction was exploring cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. These talks occurred amid internal tensions within United Torah Judaism, particularly between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah. Disputes centered on the haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A letter from Rabbi Dov Lando expressing doubts about the commitment to the Likud-led bloc further complicated the alignment between the haredi parties and the ruling government.

Goldknopf faces a distinct challenge in shifting his base. His voters are predominantly identified with the Right. Assessments cited in recent reports indicate that any visible move toward supporting an opposition government could push some of his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit.

Attention has also shifted to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither the current government nor the opposition secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, Bennett could determine the government's structure. One scenario involves Bennett joining a Netanyahu-led cabinet, a move viewed as remote but possible given his background on the Right. His current party composition would complicate such a transition, requiring him to shift his base of support.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential bridge figure, having previously served as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. However, current assessments suggest Liberman is unlikely to make such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister. For now, these possibilities remain political assessments rather than finalized agreements.