Israelis Prepare to Decide If the Prime Minister's Long Rule Ends

Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday in a race that is less about ideology and more about one man. Benjamin Netanyahu first took office three decades ago and has held the premiership for nineteen of those years. The political landscape has split into two camps defined by their stance on him rather than left or right labels. Current polling shows the two sides running neck and neck.

The main opposition challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief of staff who entered politics only four years ago. Born to working-class Moroccan Jewish parents, he leads a party named Yashar, which translates to straight or direct. At a rally this week in Modi'in, between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, supporters cheered his no-frills approach. He advocates for term limits for prime ministers, arguing that power corrupts, and calls for a country without lies.

The opposition bloc is not a monolith. It includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both right-wing figures who previously worked with Netanyahu before falling out. On the far right, leaders like Yishai Fleisher of Otzma Yehudit are also campaigning against the current prime minister. Fleisher argued in Bet Shemesh that Netanyahu drifts left and needs to be pulled right. He proposed more settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, a ministry to encourage voluntary Palestinian departure, the death penalty, and more weapons for Jewish civilians.

Netanyahu has framed the debate around a binary choice. His campaign posters present a rhyming option between Yamin, the right, and Falastin, Palestine. This strategy places opposition leaders alongside heads of parties representing Palestinian citizens, who make up about a fifth of the population. The key question in the final weeks is whether anti-Netanyahu Jewish parties, who are forecast to outpoll his bloc but lack a majority, will rely on mainly Arab parties to form a government. Pro-Netanyahu media, particularly Channel 14, have helped keep opponents on the defensive.

Tensions flared this week when Channel 14's Yinon Magal called Eisenkot a Moroccan monkey. Speakers at the rally mentioned the slur, though Eisenkot did not. Admirers viewed his silence as restraint, while critics saw a politician struggling to grasp his opponent. The close race puzzles many observers given the significant setbacks Netanyahu has faced. The deadliest attack in Israel's history occurred on his watch in October 2023. His war in Gaza killed more than 70,000 Palestinians, with Israel claiming a third were Hamas combatants, yet Hamas was not eradicated. Iran's nuclear threat remains, and he faces legal issues from a corruption trial and the Qatargate affair.

Despite these challenges, Netanyahu's durable base has not wavered. Reports that he received credible warnings of the 2023 attack and failed to act did not shake his support. Allies claim army and intelligence chiefs kept him in the dark, a claim with little evidence. He is also regarded as a skilled coalition builder, leading many to expect he will outmaneuver rivals in post-election talks. Opposition hopes rest partly on expatriate Israelis flying home to vote. This group is not captured in standard polls and could tip the balance if the result turns on a single seat in the 120-member Knesset.

The mood is mixed as the state marked the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin on Thursday. Netanyahu stayed away and sent a low-ranking minister. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, expressed optimism about a regional strategic process for security, though he avoided the term peace process. The word peace has been tainted for many, but a recent video of young Israelis singing Rabin's favorite song at a music festival suggests a shift. For some, the full flights home and the music signal that the age of Netanyahu may be nearing its end.