37 Million Tons Moved, But Tankers Stall in Arctic Ice

Two weeks after a group of sanctioned Russian tankers became trapped in the ice of the Vilkitsky Strait, only one vessel managed to pass through. The strait, a 55-kilometer wide choke point between the northern Siberian coast and Bolshevik Island, halted the progress of the rest of the fleet. These ships were anchored far above the Arctic Circle in July, waiting for assistance that took days to arrive.

Two nuclear-powered icebreakers were dispatched to help, but the vessels could not navigate the packed ice. The tankers eventually abandoned the direct route and took a different path to continue their journey. This delay occurred despite the Kremlin's promotion of the Northern Sea Route as a reliable corridor for global trade.

President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly called the route a safe path to major markets. At the launch of the Vostok Oil project on the Taimyr Peninsula last month, he stated that 37 million tons of cargo moved along the route in 2025. He predicted this figure would almost double by 2030, a target that follows an earlier 2019 goal of 80 million tons by 2024.

Independent data suggests a more modest reality. The Norway-funded Center for High North Logistics reported that Russia shipped about 2 million tons of mainly crude oil along the full route to China and other Asian destinations by the end of September. Reuters, citing trading data, noted the total reached approximately 20 million barrels by mid-October. This represents a 50 percent rise from 2025 levels but accounts for only 1 percent of Russia's total seaborne oil exports.

Tomas Alexa, a senior analyst at the maritime security consultancy Ambrey, described the recent volume increase as a surge from a relatively low base. He pointed to Western sanctions as a key obstacle, noting that Russia struggles to build and maintain Arctic-capable vessels. Repair work that was previously handled by Norwegian, Danish, and Dutch firms is no longer accessible, forcing spare parts and materials to be routed through third parties.

Ksenia Vakhrusheva, head of the Arctic project at the Lithuania-based environmental group Bellona, explained the physical mechanics of the blockage. She stated that less ice does not mean easier navigation because melting ice can break up and pack tightly in narrow straits. This phenomenon blocks ships that lack a specific ice class, illustrating the unpredictable conditions of the route.

Other nations are now testing the waters. On October 22, South Korea reported that its first container ship used the Northern Sea Route. Officials described it as a shortcut to Europe but noted difficult conditions, including large ice floes in the Bering and Vilkitsky straits. China also ran a scheduled container service to Europe along the route for the first time this year, completing several voyages.

Security concerns are rising alongside commercial interest. EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas said on October 21 that the Arctic has become a front line of global power competition. NATO launched its Arctic Sentry mission in February, and the United States announced plans last month to expand its military presence in Greenland. Catherine Sendak of the Center for European Policy Analysis noted that questions remain over tolls and services Moscow would offer commercial vessels.

Environmental groups warn that increased shipping by aging shadow fleet tankers poses specific risks. Vakhrusheva noted that oil degrades more slowly in cold conditions and can spread over ice. Russia publishes no information on incidents along the route, and the remoteness of the area prevents independent groups from reporting on them.