Israel Election Stalemate Opens Door for Netanyahu to Resume Iran Campaign

Benjamin Netanyahu’s political position improved slightly following the recent Israeli elections, yet his bloc remains short of a majority. He now depends on Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot to form a government and avoid a second vote. This delay in forming a cabinet creates a potential window for Israel to resume military operations against Iran.

The decision to strike has been held back in recent weeks by opposition from U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli military Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. Zamir objected to a pre-election attack to prevent Iranian retaliation from disrupting voting and to avoid appearing as a political tool for Netanyahu. Trump opposed the move before the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3. Both objections were tied to specific calendar dates that have now passed or are imminent.

Avigdor Liberman, leader of Yisrael Beytenu and an ally of Eisenkot, will not begin serious coalition negotiations until Friday. This is when final election results are confirmed. Liberman must then choose between partnering with Israeli-Arab parties, joining forces with Netanyahu, or calling a second election. Any path requires lengthy negotiations over terms and ministries. These talks typically take weeks or months, a timeframe that exceeds the four days between Friday and the U.S. midterms.

Zamir supports an attack only under specific conditions: if Iran is about to strike Israel, if the U.S. restarts the war first with full Israeli support, or if a strike is part of a strategy to force nuclear concessions. He does not view Tehran as being closer to a major nuclear or ballistic missile threat, noting that U.S. and Israeli strikes in early 2026 and June 2026 set those programs back by years. With the domestic vote concluded, no internal barrier stops a strike, but Zamir is not rushing toward one.

Trump remains the main variable. He avoided a pre-midterm attack because the Iran war is hurting him and the Republican Party in polls. After November 3, he will face less pressure to protect his electoral standing. However, most of his senior advisers oppose a return to war. Some argue that a brief conflict might weaken Iran’s negotiating position, while others note that Tehran has refused to yield since February and has continued firing even after previous U.S. ceasefires.

Trump may instead continue applying economic pressure on Iran. He has oscillated between economic sanctions, threats of war, and retreats in recent months, including in August and early October. Iran might also respond to his latest threats by offering a genuine nuclear deal, which would delay any attack. If Trump does favor striking, the timing would suit Netanyahu. A war would shift national attention away from coalition disputes and could make Eisenkot’s camp less willing to deal with Arab parties while missiles fall on Israeli cities.

Netanyahu would need to justify a third round of conflict to the public. He would have to present concrete evidence of new Iranian progress rather than vague claims. How he explains the decision during coalition talks will determine the political legitimacy of the action among Israelis.