Miami expected to lead CFP rankings as 12-team field forms

The College Football Playoff selection committee is poised to rank the University of Miami at number one in its initial poll released Tuesday night. The Hurricanes are undefeated and currently hold the top position in the Associated Press poll. This placement makes them the favorite for the highest seed in the 12-team field.

The committee faces difficult choices for the remaining top seeds. AP No. 3 Utah and No. 5 UCLA are also undefeated. The panel must decide whether to reward their perfect records or follow AP voters who place Georgia at No. 2. Georgia lost to unranked Auburn last month, a team that then lost 30 points to Ole Miss the following weekend.

The release of this first ranking marks the start of a six-week process. The final 12-team bracket will be announced on December 6. ESPN will televise the playoff games starting in December. The network is paying approximately $1.3 billion this year for those rights.

Last season demonstrated that early rankings do not guarantee final placement. The panel kept Miami behind Notre Dame for several weeks despite both teams having two losses. Notre Dame eventually missed the field while Miami secured a spot. This year, Miami and Notre Dame play on Saturday. A result in that game will likely trigger the first major shift in the rankings.

Notre Dame is currently ranked fourth in the AP poll. The Irish were overtaken by Utah after a 35-13 victory over Navy. Notre Dame's remaining schedule is ranked 37th, five spots lower than Miami's. A second loss could hurt their metrics beyond just the win-loss column.

The Southeastern Conference presents a unique challenge for the panel. No SEC team is undefeated entering Week 10, yet 10 teams are ranked in the Top 25. Alabama lost to Tennessee, which lost to Texas, which lost to both Florida and Oklahoma. The committee must weigh the strength of this schedule against the high number of losses.

Ohio State appears to be a borderline team for the 12 spots. The Buckeyes have two losses and lost quarterback Julian Sayin. Their recent loss to Southern California dropped them out of the AP top 10 for the first time since 2021. Indiana, the defending national champion, fell to No. 6 after an overtime win against Minnesota, its third close game in four weeks.

Boise State and New Mexico are the two Group of Six teams currently in the AP Top 25. The highest-ranked Group of Six team will earn a playoff spot regardless of conference status. The new format guarantees spots for all four Power Four conference champions. The championship game is scheduled for Las Vegas on January 25.