Israel's election: No bloc reaches the 61-seat mark

No political camp in Israel currently holds the 61 seats required to form a government following Tuesday's parliamentary election. Counting is still in progress, but early results show a fragmented Knesset that leaves the identity of the next prime minister uncertain. President Isaac Herzog is expected to begin formal consultations with party leaders next week to determine who receives the mandate to build a cabinet.

Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is on track for as many as 28 seats, the largest single bloc in the chamber. His right-wing and ultra-Orthodox alliance is projected to fall short of the governing threshold. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party appears to be in second place with approximately 22 seats. The broader change bloc surrounding Eisenkot is estimated at roughly 47 seats, a total that remains well below the 61 needed for a majority.

Arab parties are projected to win at least 17 seats combined. Both major blocs have stated they would prefer to exclude these parties from a coalition, yet the numbers suggest the Arab factions may hold the balance of power. Analysts have identified three primary paths forward as parties attempt to assemble a workable government.

The first option involves the change bloc joining forces with Arab parties. Most change bloc leaders pledged during the campaign not to govern with Arab factions, though Mansour Abbas of Ra'am previously served in a centrist coalition from 2021 to 2022 and is again offering cooperation. Yohanan Plesner of the Israel Democracy Institute noted that while this path is mathematically viable, it breaks campaign promises and faces low public tolerance due to the 2023 Hamas-led attacks.

A second possibility is a unity government. Plesner suggested this is more likely, envisioning a scenario where Netanyahu retains his right-wing partners while luring in one change bloc party. Change bloc parties would likely demand a centrist structure that excludes far-right or ultra-Orthodox parties resisting military draft bills. Such an arrangement could leave many voters who supported Eisenkot feeling betrayed.

A third scenario is another election. Eisenkot called a repeat vote a mistake in his election night speech, citing the high turnout. Election officials reported that 77.7% of voters participated, the highest rate since 1999. Plesner said a new round might suit Netanyahu, who would remain interim prime minister, a pattern seen after the 2019 election. Gideon Rahat of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem noted that entrenched political camps make new elections plausible.

Plesner described the current moment as a time for politicians to get creative. He warned that settling the prime ministership may take weeks or perhaps months, leaving the government in a state of limbo until a clear path emerges.