Pinkas: 0% Chance Netanyahu Forms Government

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, has assigned a 0% probability to Benjamin Netanyahu forming a new government. In an interview with NPR, Pinkas described the current political impasse as a direct result of the opposition's reluctance to engage with Arab-led parties, a stance he characterized as myopic and reckless.

The deadlock follows a recent election where Arab-led parties secured a strong showing. These parties draw much of their support from Palestinian citizens of Israel. While Gadi Eisenkot, the opposition leader, has the option to form a coalition with these groups or create a minority government with their outside support, both Eisenkot and Netanyahu have publicly rejected the arrangement. Netanyahu specifically called the prospect of relying on their support a shame and a disgrace.

Pinkas advised former Prime Ministers Ehud Barak and Shimon Peres. He now argues that the opposition's hesitation is ignoring a growing trend. He attributes the rising support for Arab-led parties to increasing crime and murder rates in Arab communities, particularly violence linked to organized crime groups. He stated that Netanyahu's government willfully ignored their plight by failing to deploy police or investigate the killings.

The former diplomat also challenged the argument that relying on Arab-led parties would undermine Israel's identity as a Jewish state. He questioned why the same logic does not apply to ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, which he noted describe themselves as non-Zionist. By rejecting these alliances, the opposition may be forcing a choice between a minority government or a return to the polls.

The next step in the process is the formal attempt to build a coalition. If Netanyahu fails to secure a majority, the responsibility shifts to Eisenkot. Pinkas believes the window for a stable government is closing rapidly due to the unwillingness of key leaders to compromise on party affiliation.