Polls: 12 to 15 Knesset seats held by Palestinian blocs decide next Israeli government

Pollsters project that Palestinian citizens of Israel will secure between 12 and 15 seats in the 120-member Knesset next week. These seats are expected to decide the outcome of the election because neither major Jewish Israeli bloc is forecast to reach the 61 seats required for a governing majority.

Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition is expected to lose its current majority. The Jewish Israeli opposition is also projected to fall short of the threshold needed to govern alone. The seats won by Palestinian voters, split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List alliance, will therefore be the deciding factor.

Ahmad Tibi, who leads the Ta'al party and has served in the Knesset for more than 20 years, stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a primary tool to bring down the current government. He described the community's goal as being determined to do everything necessary to end the current administration.

Most of the Jewish Israeli opposition has ruled out forming a coalition with Arab politicians. Netanyahu and his allies have campaigned to make such an alliance politically unpopular, using slogans such as 'Bibi or Tibi' and 'It's the right or Palestine.' Despite this rhetoric, Tibi is unlikely to receive a junior ministerial post if he is part of a coalition.

Israel has had only two Palestinian ministers in its history. Raleb Majadele held the sport portfolio for two years, and Issawi Frej served as regional coordination minister for just over a year. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett, who now sits in the opposition. Netanyahu himself once opened coalition talks with Abbas, showing that previous promises to avoid Palestinian parties have been broken.

Mohammed, a prospective voter who manages Jewish and Arab staff at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to change its position once the results are in. He described the situation as simple mathematics, stating that 'one plus one is two.' He is currently urging friends of all backgrounds to vote.

Forming an alliance is difficult for Palestinian politicians as well. None of the opposition parties call for a two-state solution, and most strongly oppose a Palestinian state while backing the settlement movement in the occupied West Bank. Tibi described his choice as being between 'bad and worse,' pitting Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir against the opposition.

Fear is a central motive for voters in Kfar Qasim and across the Palestinian community. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, said the biggest motivation is fear of another four years under far-right ministers. He noted that voters understand the danger if the current leaders return to rule.

Distrust of the system has depressed turnout in the past. Last month, Israel's supreme court forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article about the 7 October Hamas-led attacks. A motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld. Some Palestinians, such as journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle, refusing to legitimize a system they view as treating their rights as favors.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group said a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to speed up policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as largely about mitigation, noting that Palestinians can see the difference between a right-wing and a far-right government. The election takes place two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre in which border police killed 49 residents.