Poll Shows Majority of Shi'ites Back State Control of Hezbollah Guns

For many residents in Lebanon, the balance of power between the state and the powerful militant group Hezbollah is shifting. A new survey suggests that a significant portion of the community that has historically backed the group now wants its weapons transferred to the national government. This development marks a notable change in the political landscape that has long defined the country's internal dynamics.

The data comes from a poll conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon. The study surveyed 800 Shi'ite respondents. The results show that 66.4% favor handing the group's arms over to the Lebanese state. In contrast, 29.6% believe the militia should retain its current arsenal. Hezbollah has traditionally argued that its weapons are vital for defending the nation against external threats, particularly from Israel.

Further details from the survey highlight a desire for centralized decision-making. According to reports from Kataeb.org, 71.1% of participants said that war and peace decisions should rest exclusively with the Lebanese state. Only 5.9% believed Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in shaping the country's future. Trust in the regular army remains strong, with 78.5% of respondents expressing confidence in the military. Additionally, 51.1% identified the army as the best institution for ensuring long-term security, while only 16.5% chose the militia.

Despite this shift, feelings toward Hezbollah remain mixed. Roughly 67.4% of respondents felt the group failed to achieve its goals in the conflict with Israel or only met some of its objectives. More than 40% expressed disappointment or anger regarding the leadership and the war's consequences. However, nearly 60% still maintain some level of trust in the organization. Analysts note that the group's extensive social support networks continue to sustain its strength, especially if no other entity steps in to fill the void.

The findings stand in stark contrast to earlier data. A May 2026 survey cited by Israeli researchers showed 87.5% of Shi'ites opposing disarmament. That earlier poll also indicated over 90% opposed ties with Israel. The discrepancy has led experts to question how specific wording or survey agendas might influence results. Researchers argue that Hezbollah's power rests on its economic and social reach, as well as the historical marginalization of the Shi'ite community. They suggest that weakening the group requires a stronger army and financial backing from Western and Gulf partners.

Local attitudes also reflect wariness. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly resisted opening a branch of a Hezbollah-linked bank in their building, fearing it could become a target in an Israeli strike. The group has announced aid packages of up to $14,000 for families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose homes were destroyed, with smaller amounts for other regions. As the group recovers from major leadership losses, including the 2024 death of Hassan Nasrallah, the path forward depends on whether the state can provide security and economic opportunity.