Florida election day forecast: warm, humid, and prone to scattered storms

Voters in Florida will face warm and humid conditions on Tuesday, November 3, following a weekend that delivered historic rainfall to parts of the state. The National Weather Service in Miami projects a mix of clouds and sunshine, though scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible. Meteorologists warn that the ground remains saturated, creating a marginal risk for flash floods from South Florida through the East Central Florida region.

The weather shift follows extreme precipitation events over the past 48 hours. On Sunday, November 1, Palm Beach registered a 1,000-year rain event after 17 inches of rain fell in just six hours. This volume exceeded the standard 9-inch threshold for such an event by a factor of 1.8. The statistical likelihood of this specific rainfall total occurring at that location in any given year is 0.1%.

Rainfall totals varied across the region. Locations along the southeast Florida coast and around Lake Okeechobee recorded between 1 and 3 inches by Sunday afternoon. Inland areas in Glades and Hendry counties saw the highest isolated totals, ranging from 4 to 6 inches. Palm Beach County also received more than a foot of rain in many communities, with Palm Beach Gardens leading the state totals.

Storm activity continued into Monday. In Miami-Dade County, intense thunderstorms produced 3 to 5 inches of rain in some areas, triggering a flash flood warning on Sunday afternoon. A severe thunderstorm warning issued for North Central Miami-Dade County on Monday cited strong winds of at least 60 mph. That warning expired shortly after 4 p.m., but heavy rain persisted across the south part of the state through the afternoon.

Conditions intensified near Melbourne on Monday. More than 26 inches of rain fell in a 24-hour period near Melbourne and Palm Bay. Jeff Berardelli, a meteorologist, noted that multiple cities received 12 to 24 inches of rain without the influence of a tropical storm. He described the event as unprecedented in his career, stating he had never seen such sustained heavy rain.

For Tuesday, the forecast calls for high temperatures near 86 degrees Fahrenheit in Miami. The day will be warm and humid with scattered showers developing throughout the day. Voters in the region should anticipate potential disruptions from localized precipitation despite the general improvement in conditions.

Central Florida will see a mix of sunshine and clouds. Temperatures in Orlando are expected to reach the lower to mid-80s, with the city near 84 degrees. Occasional showers are likely, particularly during late morning and afternoon hours.

In North Florida, Jacksonville will experience periods of sunshine between passing showers. High temperatures will hover near 82 degrees Fahrenheit. Showers are most probable in the morning and early afternoon. The Florida Panhandle will remain mostly cloudy and dry for much of the daytime, with highs in the upper 70s. Rain chances increase late Tuesday night in that region.

The National Weather Service advises voters to monitor local conditions. While the severe thunderstorm warnings have lifted, the saturated ground from the weekend storms means that even moderate rainfall could lead to localized flooding. The forecast indicates that unsettled weather will gradually improve as the day progresses.