CGD: UK Aid to Fall Short of 2027 Pledge by 400 Million Pounds

New calculations from the Center for Global Development (CGD) indicate that the United Kingdom will likely miss its 2027 international aid target by an estimated £400 million. The researchers analyzed the Treasury's central forecast for independent experts and found that UK aid spending would fall short of the planned 0.3% of national income by that amount. This projected figure represents a spending level of just 0.29% of national income for the coming year.

The CGD noted that the actual shortfall could be higher. The organization described a gap of £580 million, or 0.28% of national income, as a very plausible outcome. Even the most conservative estimates in their analysis point to a deficit of at least £250 million. These figures suggest a material reduction in the spending power of UK aid relative to the government's own commitments.

Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD and co-director of its Europe programme, stated that closing a gap of £400 million would be sufficient to halve the planned cuts to Africa. He argued that the current trajectory would result in a de facto UK exit from the south and east of the continent, with likely costs in terms of thousands of lives. Mitchell characterized the projected numbers as material shortfalls in the sector's financial capacity.

The CGD attributed the projected deficit to two primary drivers. Inflation has exceeded expectations, meaning national income will be larger than it was when the spending review was conducted. A 2025 policy change affecting the budget of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) also contributed to the gap. The researchers urged ministers to add funds for international aid in the upcoming budget to avoid missing a public target.

The 2027 goal of 0.3% is significantly lower than the 0.7% pledged in Labour's election manifesto. Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowered the target to free up resources for defence spending. The overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024, a decrease of £987 million.

Fleur Anderson, a former minister on the foreign affairs select committee, said she wanted to see higher aid spending in the budget. She stated that the government should at least hit the reduced target that was set. Anderson noted that falling short is not an abstract accounting issue, pointing to communities without clean water, girls leaving school, undelivered vaccines, and cuts to peace programmes in war zones.

Figures released by the FCDO in September showed that the cuts under the current government hit the world's poorest nations hardest. Funding to the least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, or £118 million. Higher-income countries received a larger share of the remaining budget. Charities have repeatedly warned that these deep cuts will damage children's education and raise the risk of disease and death in some African countries.

An FCDO spokesperson said the multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 set out spending plans for the next three financial years. These plans were based on gross national income at the time of the 2025 spending review. The spokesperson said that moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes.

The government has prioritised funding through multilateral bodies such as the International Development Association and Gavi. It has also maintained humanitarian support. The Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to cut aid from about £9 billion a year to £1 billion, a level that would leave the UK unable to cover its existing contributions to the UN and World Bank.

The Treasury is expected to present its financial plans in the coming days. The CGD's analysis will likely inform discussions on whether additional funds are needed to meet the 2027 benchmark.