Moscow Airports Face Up to Nine Hours of Daily Closures Amid Drone Threats

Four major airports around Moscow, including Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo, have suspended operations almost every day in October. On some days, the closures lasted as long as nine hours. The disruption marks a sharp increase in the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian air travel this month.

The closures are driven by a safety procedure implemented by Rosaviatsiya, Russia's aviation authority. Known as the carpet protocol, the rule requires an immediate shutdown of airspace in a region if an aircraft violates boundaries, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear in the sky. Once triggered, strict limits apply to all air traffic in the affected area.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy set the strategic direction for this campaign in early September. He stated that Ukraine intended to cut off the airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. In a direct message to airlines, insurers, and travelers, he warned that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe. The following day, Ukraine sent a similar warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization. Ukraine has kept its own airspace closed since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of the consultancy Friendly Avia Support, explained that the protocol treats every drone as a military threat. He compared the current situation to the disruption caused by Yemen's Houthis in Saudi airspace, noting that Ukraine's military capabilities far exceed those of the Houthi group. Laneckij stated that essentially, every drone poses a military threat, forcing authorities to ground flights to ensure safety.

Jan Matvejev, a military analyst, argued that Ukraine can easily disrupt air traffic around Moscow without fully closing Russian airspace. He noted that triggering the carpet protocol only requires simple drones that do not need warheads or long range. Ukraine's arms industry currently produces hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones each day. Simon Shuster, writing in The Atlantic in October, cited well-informed sources who said Ukraine's efforts are just getting started.

Matvejev contended that Russian air defenses are not fully effective against these drones. He said that if it were possible to shoot them down, Russian forces would have done so by now. He added that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if it had the personnel available to do so.

Both experts warned that the current system creates risks for civilian flights. Laneckij suggested that Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, which could increase the danger of deadly incidents. He referenced the 2024 Christmas Day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight, which investigators determined was hit by a Russian air-defense missile fired to counter drones, killing 38 people. Matvejev said little has changed in Russia's air-defense protocol since that accident.

Matvejev distinguished between different types of threats. He stated that against a low-flying drone identified visually and shot with a machine gun, the risk to aircraft is extremely low. However, missiles present a different danger because defects in mass production could send a missile toward a nearby airliner. He also noted that drones do not need explosives to cause harm, as a collision with an airplane can be serious. He estimated that a drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow must weigh dozens of kilograms.

Airports outside the Moscow region have also experienced disruptions. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has also struck Ukrainian airports. In September, Zelenskyy said Kyiv's airport and Boryspil, near the capital, were hit.

Laneckij said that whether foreign airlines continue flying to Russia depends on three factors: the military threat, demand, and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, they could sharply raise premiums, which would send ticket prices soaring. Competition in Russia's aviation market has already shrunk because many airlines have gone out of business, pushing up demand for seats on the remaining foreign carriers. He concluded that whether they stay depends on the price they have to pay for the danger faced.